Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration passes new milestone

The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at the Mauna Loa observatory averaged 410.31 ppm for the month of April, 2018, marking the first monthly average above 410 ppm for over 800,000 years. The atmospheric CO2 concentration has now increased 30% since CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa started in 1958, and over 40% since before the Industrial Revolution.

Keeling Curve April 2018
(Updated 05-07-2018)Keeling Curve,” a plot of weekly atmospheric CO2 measurements made by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at Mauna Loa, Hawaii from 1958 to present. The curve was plotted by me using Scripps weekly data from the Mauna Loa observatory, downloaded here. Blue: Data from 1958 through 2017. Red: 2018 data. For fun and context, I added some significant human events to the Earth’s recent CO2 timeline.

The build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels traps ever greater amounts of heat from the sun, driving global climate change.

“We keep burning fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide keeps building up in the air. It’s essentially as simple as that.”
-Ralph Keeling, geochemist and Director of the Scripps CO2 Program

Read more from the scientists who perform the measurements.

#rescuethatfrog

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Released Today! The Beauty Lost

Today on Earth Day, Eliot Hester, a new age instrumentalist, has released his new The Beauty Lost album. Eliot conceived The Beauty Lost to bring attention and contemplation to beauty in the process or in danger of being lost from our Earth due to climate change. Each original composition incorporates, interwoven with contemplative melodies produced by a unique blend of instrumentation (cello, bassoon, clarinet, guitar, keyboards) natural sounds of an environment in peril.

The Beauty Lost
Play List

  1. Waves (The Beaches of Kiribati)
  2. Cracks in the Ice (The Arctic Glaciers)
  3. Tranquility (The Amazon Rainforest)
  4. Dangerous Light (The California Forest Fires)
  5. Depths (The Great Barrier Reef)
  6. The Beauty Lost
  7. Renew (feat. Nick Megard)
  8. Time After Time (feat. Cash Lane Slim)
  9. Cracks in the Ice (Live on Loop Pedal)
  10. Waves (Live) [Acoustic]

Celebrate and contemplate this Earth Day by listening to Eliot’s album! You can get it on iTunes, or wherever you go for your digital music. You can feel great about your purchase this Earth Day, as Eliot is donating 20% of the proceeds from sales related to The Beauty Lost to 350.org, a non-profit organization that supports and promotes scientific research and political action to stop anthropogenic climate change. See Eliot’s website for more information.

From time to time, I’ll post on this blog a science article related to each of the beauties and losses Eliot so harmoniously captures. Watch this space.

With his haunting and meditative music, Eliot reminds us that climate change is not simply a matter of dry science, political debate, economic calculation, and technology deployment. It is all those things, of course. But it’s also a deeply emotional and profoundly moral issue, one that fundamentally challenges our love for one another, our nurturing of children born and unborn, and our stewardship of our Earth, the provider of all the beauty that cradles us.

It’s something that will require all our brains to fix, but we feel it viscerally, in our hearts and in our guts.

Happy Earth Day.

800px-The_Earth_seen_from_Apollo_17
The Blue Marble, an image of Earth made on Dec 7, 1972 by the crew of the Apollo 17 spacecraft, travelling toward the moon at a distance of 18,000 miles above the Earth’s surface. All of humanity (with the exception of Eugene Cernan, Harrison Schmitt, and Ronald Evans of the Apollo 17 crew) was in this image. (Having been born in 1971, I just made the cut.) In the year of this image, the atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged 326 ppm, 17% higher than the pre-industrial average. Last year, the CO2 concentration measured 406 ppm, 46% higher than the pre-industrial average. Also last year, we experienced the 2nd or 3rd hottest year on record globally, a hyperactive hurricane season featuring $125 billion of damage to Houston alone due primarily to storm surge flooding accentuated by a higher sea level, and the most destructive and deadly California wildfire season on record. At the same time, we declared our intention to leave the Paris Climate Agreement, cleansed government websites and documents of scientific information about climate change, fired scientists from EPA policy advisory boards and replaced them with fossil fuel industry insiders, and argued idiotically throughout the year about whether climate change is even real or concerning. We engaged in these activities despite decades of accumulated scientific data and readily observable evidence that climate change is real and is concerning, and despite our possession of solutions to the problem.

#rescuethatfrog

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A brief thought on tax day

Like a lot of us, Amy and I filed our taxes today, a day before the due date. (Whew!) We owed this year. It’s all good; I don’t actually mind paying my fair share of taxes for the good services our government provides. Our kids attend a great school staffed with fantastic teachers. We had to call 911 once for our daughter when she was a little baby (she’s fine), and our town’s publicly funded ambulance was right there. I’ve had the opportunity of doing some work inside the wastewater treatment plant for a major metropolitan area; if you haven’t seen inside one of those, you’d be amazed at the operation your taxes pay for, you know, to take care of our business. Most summers we drive across the country on great highways. Our freedom is protected by the best military the world has ever known, and under civilian leadership.

All this stuff is expensive.

My taxes next year, I presume, will help pay for an enhanced wall on our Southern border. I wouldn’t personally elect to pay for that. I tend to believe professional border guards whom I have heard say there are more efficient ways to buy border security improvements. I also don’t think it’s all that high on our priority list of problems — the already dwindling number of illegal immigrants crossing the border with our peaceful trading partner to the South.

But I still don’t very much mind paying for that wall. I understand it’s important to lots of other Americans and they voted, fair and square, for our current President partly based on that promise. Sometimes in a democracy we end up buying what other people want more than we do.

I’ll tell you what I do not wish to buy with my taxes.

Rae Ellen Bichell
Image credit: Rae Ellen Bichell / Mountain West News Burea. Climate scientist Maria Caffrey at her home in Denver.

I do not wish to pay for my government to employ Maria Caffrey, a climate scientist at the University of Colorado, to spend the greater part of 6 years researching and writing an 86-page report about projected climate change impacts on coastal parks of the National Park Service, only to sit on the final draft for over a year after it was submitted right before the 2016 presidential election.

If, for example, the conclusion of a such a professional scientific study, funded by my tax dollars, is that the National Mall in Washington, D.C. could be extensively flooded by a category 3 hurricane on top of a higher sea level that might result from one of our worst-case emission scenarios, I think we should know that!

“It would create flooding across a massive area.”
-Climate scientist Maria Caffrey commenting on the projected effect on the National Mall of a category 3 hurricane on top of rising sea levels that might occur due to anthropogenic climate change, according to her analysis

I do not wish to pay for government employees, while they are sitting on such a report (that we purchased), to edit it in order to remove words and phrases which correctly state that climate change is human-caused, and that there are various potential outcomes over which we have control based on our emissions choices. Check out the edits:

National Parks Edits 1
Image credit: Rae Ellen Bichell / Mountain West News Burea. A marked up draft of Caffrey’s report, obtained by a journalist through a public records request, showing how the National Park Service is in the progress of systematically editing it to remove all mentions of the human role in climate change.

“Anthropogenic” and “human activities” have been removed, suggesting climate change is just a fact of life, not the direct result of human choices (in direct contradiction of the overwhelming scientific consensus based on a wealth of well studied evidence). Perhaps most insidiously, the phrase, “will have a significant impact on how we protect and manage our public lands” has been edited to read, “will impact how we manage our public lands.” Whoa, that’s way different! The scientist wrote that the impacts would be significant! And that we might need to protect and manage our public lands. As in, we might have choices to do more protecting and less managing! But after some well-placed bureaucratic strike-outs, presto, it’s just some impacts we’ll need to manage. Nothing significant. No worries.

“I want an investigation into how that document got around to the press before we even had a chance to look at it.”
-Ryan Zinke, U.S. Secretary of the Interior and an old friend of the fossil fuel industry, responding to questions from lawmakers about the report his employees appear to have had a chance to look at, based on the edits above

“I was legally required to release these records.”
-Maria Caffrey, potentially ending Zinke’s investigation by explaining that she works for a public university, which is required to supply the press, or anyone, with its records on request. Your taxes at work – yeah!

This is what I do not wish to pay for. Why should any of us want to? Why pay a scientist to study something for 6 years, then bury and seek to alter the resulting report? Why indeed, when the conclusions look pretty darn important? My family and I walked across the National Mall over Spring break. It’s beautiful, many people have worked hard to build it, and in its monuments are a record of our most important memories and greatest hardships, sacrifices, and triumphs as a nation. If the scientists we’ve already paid have concluded in the future it might be destroyed, and that’s preventable, well then we should know it! My money bought that answer!

I do not wish to pay for cover-ups, lies, and half-truths.

I do not wish to pay for my government to corruptly and falsely play favorites with the fossil fuel industry; I already pay them at the pump.

“Potentially it’s hopeful. We could choose to try and go down that lower emissions path and be able to divert ourselves away from much higher sea levels.”
-Maria Caffrey, climate scientist

That’s a message of hope, but only if we’re in possession of the truth we paid for.

#rescuethatfrog

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A Voice for Our Earth: Xavier Becerra, Attorney General of California

“We’re going to defend first and foremost existing federal greenhouse gas standards. We’re defending them because they’re good for the entire nation. No one should think it’s easy to undo something that’s been not just good for the country, but good for the planet.”

-Xavier Becerra, Attorney General of California, indicating to The New York Times his state’s determination to defend its right to maintain the current federal auto emission targets within its borders, in the face of the EPA’s impending plans to roll back those emission standards

 

Efficient Car
Image credit: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Summary of existing or nearly developed, cost effective technologies capable of enabling achievement of the current (soon to be rolled back) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) goals for 2025, according to a government website. This is a link to the live version of the website. This is a link to an image I’ve saved of it, in anticipation of its probable disappearance in the coming days.

According to reporting by The New York Times, my buddy Scott Pruitt’s EPA is planning to announce in the next few days its plans to significantly roll back the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards adopted in 2012 under an agreement, at the time, with Ford, GM, Chrysler, BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar/Land Rover, Kia, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Toyota, and Volvo, as well as the United Auto Workers (UAW). The regulations adopted at that time in agreement with these automakers — which account for over 90% of vehicle sales in the U.S. — require automakers to nearly double the average fuel economy of new cars and trucks to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.

This is a goal consistent with a scientific consensus roadmap to a future that avoids the worst potential outcomes of climate change.

It is also a goal that is achievable. This EPA website (live link, saved image in case it gets deleted) summarizes technologies available now or nearly developed that could meet this goal. It’s not as if all new cars would need to be Tesla’s by 2025. The enabling technologies include (for a standard gasoline engine car):

  • Variable valve timing and lift, cylinder deactivation, and turbocharging;
  • Electric power steering;
  • Turning off the engine when the car is stopped;
  • Fuel-efficient tires and aerodynamics;
  • Weight reduction materials;
  • 8-speed transmissions.

As an engineer, I assess that the implementation of these technologies by 2025 would be butter. The fully electrified, fully hybrid cars we normally identify with environmental friendliness would be icing on the cake.

The EPA assesses (right now) that the above technologies could increase average fleet fuel economy from around 35 mpg now to around 53 mpg in 2025, reducing oil consumption by about 12 billion barrels and reducing CO2 pollution by about six billion tons over the lifetime of all the cars affected by the regulations, while the average vehicle cost would rise from about $25,000 to about $27,000 (an increase of less than 10%).

Right now, only Canada and the U.S. have committed themselves to such aggressive fuel efficiency standards by 2025. Presumably, since the goals appear achievable, this would be a great way for Canada and the U.S. to place themselves in a technological leadership position in a world in which all nations except three have committed themselves to the Paris climate agreement.

In March, 2017, at a Detroit auto research facility, President Trump said, “I’m sure you’ve all heard the big news that we’re going to work on the CAFE standards so you can make cars in America again.” What is he talking about? We are the people who put astronauts on the moon! As a professional engineer, I guarantee you engineers at Ford, GM,  Chrysler, BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar/Land Rover, Kia, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Toyota, and Volvo are not shrinking from the challenge of implementing valve timing and lift, cylinder deactivation, turbocharging, electric power steering, turning off the engine when the car is stopped, and 8-speed transmissions by 2025.

I have to say, when President Trump says “Make America Great Again,” it’s hard for me not to hear “Make America Like It Was When it was Great in the Past Again.” From a purely technical point of view, he comes off like some fuddy-duddy nostalgic for an America that led in the past. Yes, we Americans created cars as the world knows them. The first steam powered vehicle usable on existing wagon roads was invented in 1871 in my own state of Wisconsin, inducing my great state’s legislature to offer a $10,000 award to the first to produce a practical substitute for horses. (By then, global warming was already underway.) And the later Detroit car scene advanced and redefined America’s leadership, creating cars that transported families and transformed human movement across the globe. But those were accomplishments of the future back then! They are not today’s future.

Today’s future requires vehicles that enable our rapid movement without destroying our atmosphere. Perhaps our federal legislature should offer a financial award for the first to produce a practical substitute for gas guzzling, CO2 spouting, global warming, inefficient internal combustion engines. Oh, except wait, we already have them!

California argues it should be able to maintain the current standards. It has a special waiver under the 1970 Clean Air Act empowering it to enforce stronger air pollution standards than those set by the federal government. And it means to exercise that waiver in all of our interest. 12 other states including New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania have historically followed its lead, making up together more than one-third of the U.S. auto market.

Federalism may save us from the worst, as these 13 states could force automakers to choose between dividing their product offerings between two separate markets or simply doing the right thing. To my friends and family in California, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania, THANK YOU for your leadership!

I submit it would be the height of hypocrisy for the GOP, the party of small government and states’ rights, to argue that California should not be allowed to define tighter emission standards within its own borders.

“California is not the arbiter of these issues,” said Scott Pruitt, a Republican, in an interview with Bloomberg. Whoops! That sounds like hypocrisy!

In perhaps related news, corporations of the fossil fuel industry pumped millions of dollars into the inauguration of President Trump, who then chose a bevy of fossil fuel enthusiasts (read: old white guys who mainly care about money) to his cabinet, including Scott Pruitt as head of the EPA.

#rescuethatfrog


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The Beauty Lost Project: Release today! “Tranquility (The Amazon)”

Eliot Amazon
Image credit: Eliot Hester, The 5th Records

Eliot Hester, a new age instrumentalist, has conceived The Beauty Lost Project, his effort to bring attention and contemplation to beauty in danger of being lost from the world, irreversibly, due to climate change. Each original composition incorporates, interwoven with contemplative melodies produced by a unique blend of instrumentation (cello, bassoon, clarinet, guitar, keyboards) natural sounds of an environment in peril.

In advance of the upcoming release of his The Beauty Lost album, Eliot and The 5th Records are releasing TODAY a single from the album, “Tranquility (The Amazon).” Look for it on iTunes or wherever you go for digital music. Eliot is donating 20% of the proceeds from sales related to The Beauty Lost Project to scientific research and political action to stop climate change. The Beauty Lost album will be released on Earth Day, April 22, 2018. See Eliot’s blog for more information.

Eliot is right to bring attention to the Amazon rainforest. A 2013 study by an international research team led by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory analyzed detailed satellite data collected over the Amazon between 2000 and 2009. This study linked rainfall data with spacecraft measurements of the moisture content and structural changes in the rainforest’s canopy, finding that the Amazon suffered a severe drought around 2005. The 2005 drought was directly attributed to long-term warming of the tropical Atlantic sea surface.

“In effect, the same climate phenomenon that helped form hurricanes Katrina and Rita along U.S. southern coasts in 2005 also likely caused the severe drought in southwest Amazonia.”
-Sassan Saatchi, researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and lead author of the 2013 study

Before the Amazon could recover from the 2005 drought, the rainforest suffered a second megadrought around 2010. A 2009 study of the drought effects concluded that repeated cyclical droughts could be expected to destroy 20-40% of the Amazon, converting it irreversibly to savanna within 100 years, if global warming could be limited to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (the current goal of the Paris Climate Agreement). If global temperatures increased as much as 4 degrees Celsius, the authors projected up to an 85% loss of the Amazon.

This is also a classic example of a positive feedback (“positive” meaning “negative” for humanity). Loss of the Amazon would turn one of the Earth’s greatest carbon sinks into a carbon contributor as dead trees rot.

“Ecologically it would be a catastrophe and it would be taking a huge chance with our own climate. The tropics are drivers of the world’s weather systems and killing the Amazon is likely to change them forever. We don’t know exactly what would happen but we could expect more extreme weather.”
-Peter Cox, professor of climate system dynamics at the University of Exeter and co-author of the 2009 study

A new study published last month documents the most recent Amazon megadrought in 2015, which was worse than the previous two and affected an area of the rainforest doubled in size compared with the 2005 event.

There is still time to prevent the worst of it, but time is running out.

#rescuethatfrog

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Americans Lament Inability to Talk About Mass Shootings or Hurricanes Because of Need to Mourn Extraordinarily Frequent Mass Shootings, Hurricanes

This “news story” is a work of satire. All linked quotes, however, are 100% real.

14 February 2018

AP – Hours after a troubled teen packing an AR-15 military style firearm killed at least 17 adults and schoolchildren in a Parkland, Florida high school, a handful of months after a gunman killed at least 26 church-goers in Sutherland Springs, Texas, and in the wake of a string of national tragedies over earlier weeks including the depraved massacre of 58 people by a “lone wolf” gunman in Las Vegas only 35 days before that and the Puerto Rican landfall of Hurricane Maria around the same time, Americans widely acknowledged on Wednesday they had entered a new Great American Mourning Episode (GAME) observed by tradition following any such travesty on U.S. soil. Variously held for a period of weeks or months, the GAME features, by mutual agreement of all patriotic American citizens and in respectful observance of the suffering of the victims of the tragedy, a usually unspoken moratorium on any insensitive public discourse related to possible root causes of the disaster or potential methods of preventing similar travesties in the future.

This exceptional American tradition was exemplified particularly well by presidential counselor Kellyanne Conlady immediately following the August landfall of Hurricane Harvey, the first of 4 major hurricanes to ravage the U.S. coastline during this year’s unusually active hurricane season.  Just hours after its landfall in Texas, a news reporter callously deviated from the spirit of the GAME by seeking to question Conlady about whether “climate change” might be a contributing factor to the hurricane’s ability to drop a record-smashing more than 4 feet of rain on Houston, whereupon Conlady justifiably responded, “…we’re trying to help the people whose lives are literally underwater, and you want to have a conversation about climate change. I mean, that is—I’m not going to engage in that right now because I work for a president and a vice president and a country that is very focused on helping the millions of affected Texans, and, God forbid, Louisianans.”

EPA administrator Scott Prune expressed a similar patriotic sentiment hours before the state of Florida was slammed by Hurricane Irma, a multi-record-setting hurricane roughly twice the width of that state.  When questioned by an indurate reporter about the possible role of “climate change” in stirring up the most savage hurricane season on record, Prune appropriately put the reporter in his place: “To have any kind of focus on the cause and effect of the storm versus helping people, or actually facing the effect of the storm, is misplaced.  …to use time and effort to address it at this point is very, very insensitive to [the] people in Florida.” Appropriate comments indeed from the head of the Environmental Protection Agency, who we must assume had by that time put a pin in all considerations of the Environment in expectation of personally performing manual labor as part of Florida relief efforts.

Hours after the October 1 Las Vegas massacre, White House press secretary Sarah Slanders similarly urged appropriate observation of the GAME. “There’s a time and place for a political debate, but now is the time to unite as a country,” Slanders solemnly reminded members of the media. “We haven’t had the moment to have a deep dive on the policy part. We have been focused on the fact that we had a severe tragedy in our country and this is a day of mourning, a time of bringing our country together, that has been the focus of the administration this morning.”

These exemplary demonstrations of patriotism epitomized the vital principle of the GAME, that any misguided efforts to identify and discuss the merits of potential policy adjustments to prevent future calamities would only serve as distractions from the proper acknowledgement and consideration of the suffering of fellow Americans.

Indeed, the GAME demands, for all who love America, that terrestrial considerations of practical human action should rather be transcended by prayer, in the form of devout appeals to any of various higher deities to ease the suffering of the afflicted and grant relief from such tragedies in the future. Americans widely admit no documented evidence of any of the major deities obviously meddling significantly in natural events or the collective fortunes of large groups of people for thousands of years. Even in those ancient times, literary evidence suggests interference of deities only in the context of vigorous efforts on the part of a human population to improve its own fortunes. Nevertheless, the documented power wielded by the deities in those times was unquestionably awesome, so the Strategy of Prayer is widely considered a “Hail Mary play” that might eliminate future human tragedies without resorting to the sorts of terrestrial human actions forbidden by proper observation of the GAME.

External observers have questioned the wisdom of the GAME, saying it might delay sorely needed actions that could prevent future horrific events. Foreign analysts have often referenced the apparent incongruity of the GAME with pragmatic American reactions to other types of problems. Aidan O’Sullivan of Limerick, Ireland pointed out, “If’n a baseball cums crashin’ through yisser picture windy, Oi’m juicy sure yer open de door roi away ter see wha’ wee kid did it, even as you’re also mournin’ de loss of yisser windy.” While true, Aidan’s example misses the point of the GAME, which has to do with the sheer size and depth of tragedy that can result only from a category 5 Atlantic hurricane or a crazy loner wielding an AR-15 legally enhanced with an ARMATAC SAW-MAG 150 round dual drum magazine, a Slide Fire bump stock, a Black Rain silencer, and a Vortex Optics Crossfire II Riflescope purchased on Amazon Prime with free overnight shipping.

Immediate, pragmatic action is entirely appropriate for day-to-day setbacks like busted picture windows.  A hurricane landfall on a major city or a gunman in an elevated firing position menacing a dense crowd of T-shirt and sandal clad concert-goers with 20 or more military grade firearms, however, is uniquely capable of generating a scale of mayhem – scores of dead and hundreds or thousands of human lives forever altered – that can only be properly observed by strict adherence to the GAME.

Disturbingly, an in-depth investigation by our reporters revealed that a small minority of Americans failed to uniformly observe the GAME. Indeed, in the same year that Americans from Puerto Rico to Texas were struggling to recover from a multi-record-setting string of ferocious hurricanes, Terry Dinan, an economist and environmental policy expert at the Congressional Budget Office, furtively wrote of her suggestions to link scientific knowledge about hurricanes to future public policy. “Hurricane damage in the United States is likely to increase substantially in the coming decades as a result of both climate change and coastal development,” she insensitively opined. “Two primary strategies for limiting such increases are mitigation, which entails reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases, and adaptation, which entails reducing exposure or reducing the vulnerability of exposed property. A coordinated global effort to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions could lessen hurricane damage between now and 2075…” Fortunately, Dr. Dinan wrote her crass comments in the obscure and little-read journal, Ecological Economics, sparing the collective psyches of Americans suffering the effects of 2017’s active hurricane season from the damage that might have been inflicted had the callous suggestions entered the mainstream media.

In private moments, several citizens quietly confessed some trepidation about the limits the GAME might place on Americans’ ability to engage in the collective discourse necessary to develop robust solutions to some of the nation’s most pressing problems. “It had been a full month since the Las Vegas shooting, and I‘d just gotten back to starting to think about whether some type of common-sense gun legislation might help reduce the body count when some nut becomes unhinged and decides to kill a bunch of innocent people in a school or at a concert,” explained Larry Swingvoater of Green Bay, Wisconsin. “Now, another maniac decided to open fire in a church, so of course I can’t think about policy while those poor people are suffering. But what I worry about is, if these hurricanes and mass shootings keep happening so close together, when WILL I think about that stuff? Anyway, I’m back to praying now – maybe that will eventually pay off.”

Others wondered aloud what the solutions from a supernatural deity might look like, should the Strategy of Prayer prove successful. Would future tragedies from climate change ultimately be averted by solutions resembling the “solar technology,” “wind technology,” or “battery technology” rumored to have been developed by human scientists and engineers? Or, might a deity prove capable of providing sustainable bioenergy derived from multitudes of burning bushes? Or, tidal energy afforded by repetitive parting of the earth’s seas? Might an entity akin to the Holy Spirit provide a bullet-proof energy field around the nation’s innocent civilians, enabling Americans to maintain casual public availability of thrilling, adrenaline-pumping battlefield style firearms without risk to young schoolchildren?

A handful of fringe citizens, who made their controversial remarks on condition of anonymity so as not to be identified as GAME-violators, expressed the cynical opinion that the GAME poorly serves American politics and is actually the result of a “cruel and selfish conspiracy” by a few well-funded special interests with outsized influence on U.S. legislative policy. “This is not patriotism, but simply a transparent political delay tactic,” claimed Jon Faiknaim, whose name has been changed in this article at his request. “Every time a hurricane or a gun-toting madman kills a bunch of people, politicians in the pockets of the fossil fuel industry and the National Rifle Association call it ‘insensitive’ to talk about policy changes that would solve some of our most urgent public problems but harm the narrow interests of those minority stakeholders. Then, everybody forgets about the problem the moment another issue of critical national interest demands consideration. Like the linguistic etymology of the word, ‘covfefe,’ or how football players arrange their limbs during pre-game performances of the National Anthem. Then, the next time one of these tragedies occurs, the irrational cycle repeats itself.” Fortunately, these cynical expressions of doubt were rare.

On the whole, proper observation of America’s GAME was alive and well Wednesday thanks, in no small part, to the stellar leadership example of President Donald Tweety, who so inspirationally addressed the nation following the earlier Las Vegas massacre. “I think the only message I can say is that we’re with you 100 percent,” Tweety remarked from the relative safety of his Secret Service perimeter, when asked by a reporter if he had a message for the citizens of Las Vegas. “I said, ‘If you’re ever in Washington, come on over to the Oval Office,’ and they’re all saying, ‘We wanna do it, how do we do it?’ And believe me, I’ll be there for them. But the message that I have is we have a great country and we are there for you, and they’re there for us,” Tweety continued, apparently extending his generous presidential invitation to the citizens of Las Vegas not dead of gunshot wounds.

But our national leader’s statements were most inspirational as he bravely defended the sanctity of the GAME when questioned by an unruly member of the press pool about whether “we have a gun violence problem.”

“We’re not going to talk about that today. We won’t talk about that,” Tweety responded, later adding that a gun policy debate “at some point, perhaps … will come.”

EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt’s Idiotic Comments of this Past Tuesday: A Scientific Rebuttal

Scott Pruitt is the current administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), a federal agency that was proposed by Republican President Nixon and established in 1970. Its mission then was the same as its stated mission now. That mission is written succinctly on its website: “Our mission is to protect human health and the environment.” So far, so good.

The EPA website further elaborates on various elements of accomplishing that mission, second among them being to ensure that, “National efforts to reduce environmental risks are based on the best available scientific information.” It’s here I think we have a problem with Scott.

Prior to his appointment to the office on Feb 17, 2017, Scott Pruitt had sued the EPA 14 times as Attorney General of Oklahoma, and declared himself a “leading advocate against the EPA’s activist agenda.” Based on my own experience interviewing prospective new hires, a professed and demonstrated opposition to the mission of the job in question would be a practically disqualifying consideration. But I just work for a technology company that routinely develops and commercializes new and useful products based on science, not a government that successfully declines to take much substantive action despite decades of accumulating scientific knowledge. So what would I know about hiring in government?

The problem is, despite almost exactly a year in his position, at the head of an organization replete with expert climate scientists and with complete access to any manner of scientific evidence, Scott’s actions and statements have demonstrated a remarkable immunity to even the most basic scientific knowledge.

The latest case in point — his remarks this past Tuesday, explaining how, in direct contradiction of all scientific evidence, climate change (which Scott conceded humans have caused “to a certain degree”) might just be good for us!

“Is it an existential threat? Is it something that is unsustainable, or what kind of effect or harm is this going to have? I mean, we know that humans have most flourished during times of what? Warming trends . . . I think there’s assumptions made that because the climate is warming, that that necessarily is a bad thing. Do we really know what the ideal surface temperature should be in the year 2100? In the year 2018? I mean it’s fairly arrogant for us to think that we know exactly what it should be in 2100.”
-Scott Pruitt in an interview with KSNV TV in Las Vegas, Feb 6, 2018

This is a type of climate denial argument that seems to be growing in popularity recently, as increasing scientific evidence, a virtually unanimous and well-publicized scientific consensus, and easily observable natural events force even staunch deniers to admit the Earth appears to be warming. It just shifts the willful ignorance one logical step further: “OK, maybe the Earth is warming a bit, and maybe humans are responsible at least a little bit, but how do we know that’s bad? Maybe it’s good!”

Scott said it Tuesday, but other deniers are also employing this argument:

It’s an argument that thrives when the public is not well educated about the climate. It’s also a seductive argument, particularly in winter. You’re thinking, “Yeah, all this snow is a pain in the butt; maybe we could do with a little less of it!”

Let’s be super clear. Based on the evidence, there is absolutely no reason to expect that global climate change is likely to be a good thing for humanity. To fight this argument, we need to be armed with some basic scientific evidence. Fortunately, the evidence is publicly available and pretty simple to understand.

First, yes, we know the Earth has been warming since the Industrial Revolutions in the middle of the 1800’s, and this has been the result primarily of rising atmospheric CO2, which also started at that time. 2015, 2016, and 2017 were the three hottest years in recorded human history.

Temp Anom 2017
Graph of global average temperature as measured by 4 independent groups of scientists (orange, pink, red, and purple lines) on top of atmospheric CO2 concentration (circles). For more information, see my article here.

The effect of rising CO2 on global temperature was predicted by scientists as far back as the year 1824, based on an understanding of the absorption of infrared radiation by CO2 that was perfected with the advent of the first high-speed computers in the middle of the 1950’s.

Second, let’s clarify exactly to what “certain degree” humans have contributed to the observed increase in CO2, which drives the warming. Here is the consensus scientific opinion on that as stated in the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Synthesis Report:

“Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever. This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”

Translation: Practically speaking, you can bet essentially all of the warming has occurred because we’ve been burning fossil fuels.

This consensus is derived from a detailed accounting of the amount of CO2 that has been produced from fossil fuels and where it has gone. Based on this accounting, we now know that about exactly 57% of the CO2 we release stays in the atmosphere, the remaining 43% being absorbed by the oceans (which are acidified as a result) and soil.

Keeling with Fossil Fuels
Image credit: Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Black line: Atmospheric CO2 concentration as measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (for details, see my article here). Red line: Expected concentration if 57% of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and the cement industries stay airborne.

“I mean, we know that humans have most flourished during times of what? Warming trends . . .”
-Scott Pruitt, speaking like an ignoramus

I don’t know what he means by that last part about “warming trends.” In terms of the global average temperature, the last 3 years have been the warmest years since measurements began in 1850-1880, so that “warming trend” would be now. Are we “flourishing?” Personally, I’m doing fine, though I’m not sure I would chalk it up to global warming. It’s hard to argue that folks currently on the front lines of global climate change effects — in Shishmaref, Kiribati, or Fiji, for example — are “flourishing.” And things aren’t exactly looking up for coastal real estate owners in Miami, either.

But we can, with scientific certainty, say something about under what conditions humans have historically flourished. Specifically, humans since Biblical times have been flourishing (until very recently) with a CO2 concentration between the black lines:

2000y CO2 2017 with limits update
Atmospheric CO2 concentration since the year 0 A.D. Pre-industrial maximum, minimum, and average concentrations are indicated by the solid and dashed black lines, respectively. For more details, see my article here.

The species Homo sapiens has been flourishing, since around 200,000 years ago, with an atmospheric CO2 concentration ranging from 184 to 287 ppm.

800kY plot 2 update 2017
Atmospheric CO2 concentration since 800,000 years ago. The first anatomically modern humans appeared about 200,000 years ago. Until very recently in our history, our species never experienced a CO2 level above 287 ppm. For more details, see my article here.

The 2017 average CO2 level was 406.6 ppm, and we’re in uncharted territory as a species. The Earth as it has been, with an atmospheric CO2 concentration not exceeding around 280 ppm, has defined everything we know about living on this planet. The shape of our coastlines (where we’ve built our most valuable real estate). The location of our farmland, and the entirety of our associated food distribution system. The predictability of our water supply.

Ultimately, how we regulate our body temperature. The 2012 Global Energy Assessment estimated that there remain 15,000 gigatons of fossil carbon in the Earth’s crust. According to a 2011 peer reviewed analysis by four current and former scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the burning of 10,000 gigatons of carbon on a “business as usual” trajectory would result in a global average temperature increase of 29 degrees Fahrenheit. This would result in an estimated most common wet bulb temperature over the Earth’s surface of 109 degrees Fahrenheit. Above a sustained wet bulb temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit, the human body cannot maintain its body temperature of 98.6 degrees.

Partaking in Scott Pruitt’s blissful ignorance could, literally, cook us.

“Do we really know what the ideal surface temperature should be in the year 2100? In the year 2018? I mean it’s fairly arrogant for us to think that we know exactly what it should be in 2100.”
-Scott Pruitt, worrying aloud over the arrogant hubris of human observation and reason

Is it “arrogant” to employ systematic observation and reason to plan for the future? Perhaps, but I’d say we’re guilty as charged! Observation, reason, and planning are humans’ differentiating features. 200,000 years ago, they enabled us to survive in a world populated by natural hazards and fearsome predators. Later, they empowered us to practice agriculture, develop technologies, and build civilizations. We’ve accomplished everything, as a species, in the comfortable and stable environment created by a rather narrow range of atmospheric CO2 levels. Where the CO2 level is currently headed, all bets are off. Why would we abandon observation, reason, and planning now, especially when those strengths have also enabled us to develop sustainable energy solutions to the problem?

Because Scott Pruitt has a hunch that climate change, just maybe, could be good for us?

I’ll tell you what I think is “arrogant.” Here’s a guy, enriched by years of generous compensation by our taxes, wearing a beautiful suit and occupying a competitive seat at the top of a major federal agency, willfully ignoring the readily accessible scientific findings of an army of career professionals in that very agency. And people in Kiribati are building desperate sandbag seawalls around the towns they’ve occupied for thousands of years. And Americans in Shishmaref have voted to move their disintegrating town. And this guy’s telling those people, and our children, hey, let’s roll the dice. Because climate change just might be fun, and the financial support of the fossil fuel industry sure has helped me in my job. And not only saying this ridiculous stuff, but forming policies based on it that affect us all. Like taking down federal informational websites about climate change. Like firing professional climate scientists from EPA advisory boards and replacing them with fossil fuel industry hacks. Like supporting the president in declaring our intent to be the only nation on Earth not in the Paris climate agreement. (Even North Korea is in it!)

That’s pretty arrogant.

#rescuethatfrog

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NASA, NOAA: 2017 the 2nd or 3rd warmest year on record (after 2016), despite La Niña

My very first blog post on this website, almost exactly a year ago, was about the then-recently released data from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that independently confirmed 2016 had become the third consecutive year to set the record for warmest global temperature. My 2017 New Year’s resolution had been to learn more about global warming, whether the science was settled or not, and how (in some detail) we know, and to post my learning journey on this site. Over the course of the past year, I’ve learned a lot. I’ve learned the science is very settled, and I’ve learned exactly how long we’ve known global warming is real; as it turns out, we’ve had reliable measurements since 1958 that confirm suspicions and preliminary data scientists had since the late 1800’s (read a brief history, with links to the original research, here). I’ve learned about a multitude of easily observable effects of climate change that are happening right Before Our Eyes (check them out here). I’ve learned that we have readily available technological solutions, but we are not using them with anything like the urgency we need to if we want to prevent terrible future consequences.

A year later, the data from 2017 is in, and it was either the 2nd (according to NASA’s analysis) or 3rd (according to NOAA’s analysis) warmest year on record. Check out the press release for more details, and watch the NASA video below.

This is despite the onset of La Niña, a cyclical cooling of sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean, during the latter part of 2017, which tended to make the atmospheric temperature during that time cooler than average. El Niño, the warmer part of that Pacific cycle, was in effect for most of 2015 and the first third of 2016.

According to NASA, in an analysis of global temperature statistically removing the effects of El Niño and La Niña, 2017 would be the warmest year on record.

Why the difference in rankings between NASA (2nd warmest year on record) and NOAA (3rd warmest year on record)? As I explained in some detail on another page, NASA and NOAA are among four scientific groups (the other two being a British group and a Japanese group) that independently track global average temperature trends. While NASA, NOAA, and the other groups’ analyses have agreed remarkably well over the entire period between 1880 and now, they each use slightly different data sets and analytical methods. Specifically, NASA’s methods weight measurements in the arctic slightly more heavily than NOAA’s methods, and the arctic atmosphere has been warming more quickly than the global atmosphere as a whole.

In any case, all analyses agree that the past 3 years — 2015, 2016, and 2017 — were the hottest 3 years at least since 1880, when global temperature measurement became possible.

I guess we’d better keep learning about this, huh?

Read more:

#rescuethatfrog

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Bloomberg: South Florida’s Real Estate Reckoning Could Be Closer Than You Think

Last week, I posted scientific findings regarding increased “sunny day” tidal flooding in U.S. coastal cities and its linkage to global sea level rise due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica. I went on to argue that the frequent assertion by our president and others, that increased investment in the fossil fuel industry creates jobs and has other economic benefits, ignores the devastating and surely greater economic costs that will occur if we continue to ignore climate change. Among those costs is the massive quantity of high-priced U.S. coastal real estate that will ultimately be immersed in the ocean if we continue with “business as usual.”

Since then, I read this very recent Bloomberg article on the subject, which I recommend.

Bloomberg Article

As it turns out, though much of our government is in denial about the economic realities of climate change, that denial is vanishing in the Florida real estate market. Both social scientists and real estate business insiders can measure the effect of this growing realization on coastal real estate prices in South Florida, a test case for highly valued coastal properties that ring the nation:

US Map SLR
Figure 2 from this social science working paper, referenced in the Bloomberg article, by researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder and Pennsylvania State University. “Displays the proportion of exposed transactions in coastal counties within the continental United States. Exposure is measured as an indicator variable that takes a value of 1 if a property will be affected by 0-6 feet of sea level rise.”

Some highlights from the Bloomberg article and a social science working paper it cites:

“At some point, we won’t be able to sell.”
-Ross Hancock, homeowner in Biscayne Bay, FL, who faces a potential $60,000 repair bill for Irma damages to his condo not covered by insurance, and who has been trying for 2 months to sell it without success

“systemic fraudulent nondisclosure [of flood risk by real estate agents] … is pretty much what we have now.”
-Albert Slap, owner of Coastal Risk Consulting, a South Florida flood risk assessment company
(The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill in 2017 that would require agents to disclose flood risks, but the Senate has not taken it up.)

“They’re not going to live here while we spend two years raising the streets.”
-Dan Kipnis, Miami Beach homeowner who has been trying unsuccessfully to sell his house for 18 months despite dropping the price by a more than one-third from $3.2 million, worrying that sea-level related projects and the associated property taxes are scaring prospective buyers away

“Homes exposed to sea level rise (SLR) sell at a 7% discount relative to observably equivalent unexposed properties equidistant from the beach. This discount has grown over time and is driven by sophisticated buyers and communities worried about global warming.”
-Asaf Bernstein, Matthew Gustafson & Ryan Lewis, authors of the cited social science working paper, summarizing their conclusions from a recent detailed study of the relationship between SLR exposure and U.S. coastal real estate prices

#AskYourDenierIf TheyveSeenThis

#rescuethatfrog

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Mark Kelly on 2017 and the Future of (humans on) Planet Earth

Harvey Life And Death Of A Storm
Image credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project. Photo of our unique home captured from space on Sept. 2, 2017. Hurricane Irma is visible near the middle of the Atlantic Ocean tracking west. Irma would later traverse unusually warm surface waters greater than 86 degrees F, setting multiple records for intensity, time at high intensity, and intensity at its landfall on a multitude of Caribbean islands and Florida, where it reached an uncommon size twice the width of that state.

I highly recommend this short article, published this week, by Mark Kelly. A retired naval aviator and combat veteran, Mark made two deployments to the Persian Gulf and flew 39 combat missions as part of Operation Desert Storm. He then became a NASA astronaut and served as either pilot or commander of 4 space shuttle missions. As such, he has the rare perspective of having been in a position to look down upon the whole Earth during a total of 854 orbits over 54 days in space during the decade between 2001 and 2011.

Mark is an American patriot by any reckoning, and he has had an extraordinary opportunity to observe and contemplate our unique planet. I should think folks of any political persuasion would be interested in reading his reflections on 2017.

As we all reflect on the past year, I encourage you to read his article.

“Don’t worry about the planet, the Earth will be just fine. What you need to worry about is us — all of us. …we must lead the way in solving this problem. If we don’t do this, who will?”

-Captain Mark Kelly, retired naval aviator, combat veteran, and astronaut, 2017

#rescuethatfrog

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