“We’re going to defend first and foremost existing federal greenhouse gas standards. We’re defending them because they’re good for the entire nation. No one should think it’s easy to undo something that’s been not just good for the country, but good for the planet.”
-Xavier Becerra, Attorney General of California, indicating to The New York Times his state’s determination to defend its right to maintain the current federal auto emission targets within its borders, in the face of the EPA’s impending plans to roll back those emission standards
According to reporting by The New York Times, my buddy Scott Pruitt’s EPA is planning to announce in the next few days its plans to significantly roll back the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards adopted in 2012 under an agreement, at the time, with Ford, GM, Chrysler, BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar/Land Rover, Kia, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Toyota, and Volvo, as well as the United Auto Workers (UAW). The regulations adopted at that time in agreement with these automakers — which account for over 90% of vehicle sales in the U.S. — require automakers to nearly double the average fuel economy of new cars and trucks to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.
This is a goal consistent with a scientific consensus roadmap to a future that avoids the worst potential outcomes of climate change.
It is also a goal that is achievable. This EPA website (live link, saved image in case it gets deleted) summarizes technologies available now or nearly developed that could meet this goal. It’s not as if all new cars would need to be Tesla’s by 2025. The enabling technologies include (for a standard gasoline engine car):
- Variable valve timing and lift, cylinder deactivation, and turbocharging;
- Electric power steering;
- Turning off the engine when the car is stopped;
- Fuel-efficient tires and aerodynamics;
- Weight reduction materials;
- 8-speed transmissions.
As an engineer, I assess that the implementation of these technologies by 2025 would be butter. The fully electrified, fully hybrid cars we normally identify with environmental friendliness would be icing on the cake.
The EPA assesses (right now) that the above technologies could increase average fleet fuel economy from around 35 mpg now to around 53 mpg in 2025, reducing oil consumption by about 12 billion barrels and reducing CO2 pollution by about six billion tons over the lifetime of all the cars affected by the regulations, while the average vehicle cost would rise from about $25,000 to about $27,000 (an increase of less than 10%).
Right now, only Canada and the U.S. have committed themselves to such aggressive fuel efficiency standards by 2025. Presumably, since the goals appear achievable, this would be a great way for Canada and the U.S. to place themselves in a technological leadership position in a world in which all nations except three have committed themselves to the Paris climate agreement.
In March, 2017, at a Detroit auto research facility, President Trump said, “I’m sure you’ve all heard the big news that we’re going to work on the CAFE standards so you can make cars in America again.” What is he talking about? We are the people who put astronauts on the moon! As a professional engineer, I guarantee you engineers at Ford, GM, Chrysler, BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar/Land Rover, Kia, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Toyota, and Volvo are not shrinking from the challenge of implementing valve timing and lift, cylinder deactivation, turbocharging, electric power steering, turning off the engine when the car is stopped, and 8-speed transmissions by 2025.
I have to say, when President Trump says “Make America Great Again,” it’s hard for me not to hear “Make America Like It Was When it was Great in the Past Again.” From a purely technical point of view, he comes off like some fuddy-duddy nostalgic for an America that led in the past. Yes, we Americans created cars as the world knows them. The first steam powered vehicle usable on existing wagon roads was invented in 1871 in my own state of Wisconsin, inducing my great state’s legislature to offer a $10,000 award to the first to produce a practical substitute for horses. (By then, global warming was already underway.) And the later Detroit car scene advanced and redefined America’s leadership, creating cars that transported families and transformed human movement across the globe. But those were accomplishments of the future back then! They are not today’s future.
Today’s future requires vehicles that enable our rapid movement without destroying our atmosphere. Perhaps our federal legislature should offer a financial award for the first to produce a practical substitute for gas guzzling, CO2 spouting, global warming, inefficient internal combustion engines. Oh, except wait, we already have them!
California argues it should be able to maintain the current standards. It has a special waiver under the 1970 Clean Air Act empowering it to enforce stronger air pollution standards than those set by the federal government. And it means to exercise that waiver in all of our interest. 12 other states including New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania have historically followed its lead, making up together more than one-third of the U.S. auto market.
Federalism may save us from the worst, as these 13 states could force automakers to choose between dividing their product offerings between two separate markets or simply doing the right thing. To my friends and family in California, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania, THANK YOU for your leadership!
I submit it would be the height of hypocrisy for the GOP, the party of small government and states’ rights, to argue that California should not be allowed to define tighter emission standards within its own borders.
“California is not the arbiter of these issues,” said Scott Pruitt, a Republican, in an interview with Bloomberg. Whoops! That sounds like hypocrisy!
In perhaps related news, corporations of the fossil fuel industry pumped millions of dollars into the inauguration of President Trump, who then chose a bevy of fossil fuel enthusiasts (read: old white guys who mainly care about money) to his cabinet, including Scott Pruitt as head of the EPA.
#rescuethatfrog