This article, which appeared in the August, 1953 issue of Popular Mechanics magazine, references the work of Dr. Gilbert Plass, a Canadian physicist who had just begun using some of the world’s first high-speed computers to perform accurate calculations of infrared absorption of sun radiation in all layers of our Earth’s atmosphere. The many calculations required could not have been accomplished by hand. The layer-by-layer atmospheric radiation model Dr. Plass constructed provided the first decisive proof that carbon dioxide additions to the atmosphere could be expected to increase our Earth’s surface temperature. (This had been suspected since the 1800’s, but reasonable scientists disagreed and the dispute could not be settled without more accurate data or computations.)
I have tried to find out what computers Dr. Plass used, but I can’t find that information published anywhere. The IBM 701, pictured below, was the first mass produced computer and was introduced just a few months before the above article.
Dr. Plass’ predictions in the above article, later refined in a series of scientific papers he published in 1956, have proven remarkably accurate. If you want to learn more about how Dr. Plass’ work fits into our knowledge of climate change, check out Episode 3 of my Brief History of Climate Change Evidence. To see just how well Dr. Plass’ predictions held up, check out Episode 7, where we look at modern temperature measurements and grade his work.
Spoiler alert: It’s been 65 years since the above article; lots of accurate measurements have been made by scientists all over the world, and the article was pretty much right on.