A January 8 analysis of 2018 U.S. energy data by the Rhodium Group, an independent economic policy research provider, concludes that U.S. CO2 emissions increased 3.4% in 2018. This follows an earlier December report by the Global Carbon Project that projected an increase of 2.7% for 2018.
This reverses 3 consecutive years of decline and a general declining trend averaging 1.6% per year since 2007. The pace of emissions decline had slowed since 2016 prior to the strong reversal in 2018.
Continuing a trend in previous years, power generation from coal declined significantly in 2018, as an estimated 13.7 gigawatts of U.S. coal-fired capacity was retired. Most of this retired power generation capacity, as well as a significant increase in power demand in 2018, was provided by natural gas combustion.
During the first 10 months of 2018, gas-fired power generation increased by an amount three times as large as the decline in coal-fired generation and four times as large as the combined increase in solar and wind generation (left graph above).
Progress relative to targets
The 2018 increase in CO2 emissions will make it more difficult for the U.S. to meet its emissions targets according to international agreements, which are based on target reductions relative to a 2005 benchmark level. After the increase last year, the U.S. ended 2018 with energy-related emissions 11.2% lower than the 2005 level.
Under the Copenhagen Accord, the U.S. has a target of reducing all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 17% by the year 2020, relative to 2005 levels. Assuming non-energy related GHG emissions reductions are proportional to energy-related reductions, the U.S. will need to reduce energy-related emissions by an average of 3.3% per year in 2019 and 2020 to meet this target. (Non-energy related GHG emissions reductions have historically lagged energy-related reductions.)
Under the Paris Agreement (from which the U.S. has announced its intention to withdraw, but from which it cannot formally withdraw until November 4, 2020), the U.S. has a target of reducing GHG emissions by 26-28% by 2025, relative to 2005 levels. This would require emissions reductions averaging 2.6% per year over the next seven years.
As reported by both the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a consortium of 13 U.S. federal agencies, scientists widely agree emissions targets under the Paris Agreement are inadequate to that agreement’s stated goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, or better yet 1.5 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels to avoid the most calamitous consequences of climate change. Instead, scientists say global GHG emissions need to be cut in half by about 2030 and reach net zero emissions by no later than about 2055 to meet those stated goals, as shown in the lower left panel below.
Of the possibility that the U.S. can meet its Copenhagen and Paris emissions targets, the Rhodium Group report concludes,
“It is certainly feasible, but will likely require a fairly significant change in policy in the very near future and/or extremely favorable market and technological conditions.”
Meeting the more difficult stated global warming targets under the Paris Agreement will require a concerted, global effort characterized by political and technological boldness and a commitment to placing a price on carbon emissions, which are externalized in the current global economy.
Very sad day & night in Paris. Maybe it’s time to end the ridiculous and extremely expensive Paris Agreement and return money back to the people in the form of lower taxes? The U.S. was way ahead of the curve on that and the only major country where emissions went down last year!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 8, 2018
The first half of this tweet by President Trump, referencing “yellow vest” riots in Paris in late 2018, has the effect of insulting a NATO ally and a recent partner in the U.S. fight against ISIS. The second half, as we have seen above, has the defect of being totally unrelated to facts.
Facts
- Far from going down last year, U.S. emissions increased by 3.4%.
- European Union emissions in 2018 were about flat compared to the year before (i.e., the EU outperformed the U.S. in CO2 emissions reductions).
Indeed, the difficulties in France result partially from popular opposition to its government’s implementation of an intensifying carbon tax in efforts to meet its ecological targets. These are real challenges. They are complex challenges. They should be discussed and debated with an intention oriented to solutions.
But our current discourse in this country is inadequate to the challenges and not oriented to solutions. Consider the state of our discourse:
- In response to a UN report commissioned by 195 nations, years in the making, and citing over 6,000 separate peer-reviewed scientific studies, regarding the steps necessary to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, the U.S. President says (48 hours after its release), “I can give you reports that are fabulous, and I can give you reports that aren’t so good.”
- In response to a consensus report by 13 agencies of his own government, basically corroborating and making specific to the United States the conclusions of the UN report, the U.S. President says, “I don’t believe it.”
- The U.S. President announces his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, citing his concern for coal miners’ jobs. But this is obviously disingenuous because, as we’ve seen above, coal has been on the decline for a number of years and has continued declining while Trump has been in office. Why? Because natural gas, wind, and solar have become cheaper (link to facts, link to facts, link to facts). Mainly natural gas has become cheaper, as we further see above, because there is no price on carbon emissions even though all scientific evidence indicates those emissions do great economic damage.
- The U.S. President routinely tweets word salads, like the one above, that are totally divorced from facts.
Climate change is a solvable, complex problem. To solve complex problems, we must first deal in facts.
#rescuethatfrog