Bibliography with links to primary research

Following are links to research papers by topic.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
Working Group I Report, “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
Working Group II Report, “Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Working Group III Report, “Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4)

IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001 (TAR)

IPCC Second Assessment Report: Climate Change 1995 (SAR)

IPCC First Assessment Report 1990 (FAR)

Evidence of a scientific consensus that global warming is real and caused by humans

J. Cook, et al., Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming; Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016), 048002.

J. L. Powell, Climate scientists virtually unanimous: anthropogenic global warming is true; Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society 35 (2015), 121-124.

J. Cook, et al., Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature; Environmental Research Letters 8 (2013), 024024.

W. R. L. Anderegg, et al., Expert credibility in climate change; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 (2010), 12107-12109.

D. Bray, The scientific consensus of climate change revisited; Environmental Science & Policy 13 (2010), 340-350.

P. T. Doran & M. K. Zimmerman, Examining the scientific consensus on climate change; Eos 90 (2009), 22-23.

The temperature “hockey stick”

S. Rutherford, et al., Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions: Sensitivity to method, predictor network, target season, and target domain; Journal of Climate 18 (2005), 2308-2329.

S. McIntyre & R. McKitrick, Corrections to the Mann et al. (1998) proxy data base and Northern Hemispheric average temperature series; Energy & Environment  14 (2003), 751-771.

M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley & M. K. Hughes, Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millenium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations; Geophysical Research Letters 26 (1999), 759-762.

M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley & M. K. Hughes, Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries; Nature 392 (1998), 779-787.

Post-Keeling Curve measurements of atmospheric CO2, oceanic CO2, and temperature (1961-present)

G. L. Foster, D. L. Royer & D. J. Lunt, Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years; Nature Communications 8 (2017), 14845.

C. P. Morice, et al., Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set; Journal of Geophysical Research 117 (2012), D08101, doi:10.1029/2011JD017187.

C. D. Keeling, et al., Evolution of natural and anthropogenic fluxes of atmospheric CO2 from 1957 to 2003; Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology 63B (2011), 1-22.

J. Hansen, et al., Global surface temperature change; Reviews of Geophysics 48 (2010), RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.

T. M. Smith, et al., Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006); Journal of Climate 21 (2008), 2283-2296.

W. Steffen, P. J. Crutzen & J. R. McNeill, The Anthropocene: Are humans now overwhelming the great forces of nature?; Ambio 36 (2007), 614-621.

M. Ishii, et al., Objective analyses of sea-surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for the 20th Century using ICOADS and the Kobe Collection; International Journal of Climatology 25 (2005), 865-879.

C. L. Sabine, et al., The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2; Science 305 (2004), 367-371.

M. F. Lamb, et al., Consistency and synthesis of Pacific Ocean CO2 survey data; Deep-Sea Research II 49 (2002), 21-58.

N. Gruber & C. D. Keeling, An improved estimate of the isotopic air-sea disequilibrium of CO2: Implications for the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2; Geophysical Research Letters 28 (2001), 555-558.

T. J. Crowley, Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years; Science 289 (2000), 270-277.

T. J. Lueker, A. G. Dickson & C. D. Keeling, Ocean pCO2 calculated from dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and equations for K1 and K2: validation based on laboratory measurements of CO2 in gas and seawater at equilibrium; Marine Chemistry 70 (2000), 105-119.

N. Gruber, et al., Spatiotemporal patterns of carbon-13 in the global surface oceans and the oceanic Suess effect; Global Biogeochemical Cycles 13 (1999), 307-335.

C. D. Keeling, Rewards and penalties of monitoring the Earth; Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 23 (1998), 25-82.

R. Revelle, How I became an oceanographer and other sea stories; Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 15 (1987), 1-23.

J. Hansen & S. Lebedeff, Global trends of measured surface air temperature; Journal of Geophysical Research 92 (1987), 13345-13372.

J. Hansen, et al., Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide; Science 213 (1981), 957-966.

C. D. Keeling, The Suess Effect: 13carbon-14carbon interrelations; Environmental International 2 (1979), 229-300.

C. D. Keeling, et al., Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at the South Pole; Tellus 28 (1976), 552-564.

C. D. Keeling, et al., Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii; Tellus 28 (1976), 538-551.

C. Mehrbach, et al., Measurement of the apparent dissociation constants of carbonic acid in seawater at atmospheric pressure; Limnology and Oceanography 18 (1973), 897-907.

R. Revelle, The role of the oceans; Saturday Review; May 7 (1966), 39-42.

J. C. Pales & C. D. Keeling, The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide in Hawaii; Journal of Geophysical Research 70 (1965), 6053-6076.

B. Bolin & C. D. Keeling, Large-scale atmospheric mixing as deduced from the seasonal and meridional variations of carbon dioxide; Journal of Geophysical Research 68 (1963), 3899-3920.

B. Bolin & E. Eriksson, Changes in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and sea due to fossil fuel combustion. In The Atmosphere and the Sea in Motion, B. Bolin, Ed., New York: Rockefeller Institute Press, 1959, pp. 130-142.

Studies of anthropogenic global warming prior to the Keeling Curve (1880-1961)

G. S. Callendar, Temperature fluctuations and trends over the Earth; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 87 (1961), 1-12.

H. E. Landsberg & J. M. Mitchell, Jr., Temperature fluctuations and trends over the Earth; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 87 (1961), 435-437.

C. D. Keeling, The concentration and isotopic abundances of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; Tellus A 12 (1960), 200-203.

G. S. Callendar, On the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; Tellus 10 (1958), 243-248.

C. D. Keeling, The concentration and isotopic abundances of carbon dioxide in rural areas; Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 13 (1958), 322-334.

R. Revelle & H. E. Suess, Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean and the question of an increase of atmospheric CO2 during the past decades; Tellus 9 (1957), 18-27.

S. Fonselius, et al., Carbon dioxide variations in the atmosphere; Tellus 8 (1956), 176-183.

G. N. Plass, The carbon dioxide theory of climate change; Tellus (1956), 140-154.

G. N. Plass, Infrared radiation in the atmopshere; American Journal of Physics 24 (1956), 303-321.

G. N. Plass, The influence of the 15u carbon-dioxide band on the atmospheric infra-red cooling rate; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 82 (1956), 310-324.

G. N. Plass, The influence of the 9.6 micron ozone band on the atmospheric infra-red cooling rate; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 82 (1956), 30-44.

G. N. Plass, Effect of carbon dioxide variations on climate; American Journal of Physics 24 (1956), 376-387.

G. Slocum, Has the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere changed significantly since the beginning of the twentieth century?; Monthly Weather Review 83 (1955), 225-231.

G. S. Callendar, A close parallel between temperature fluctuations in East Canada and Britain; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 81 (1955), 98-99.

G. S. Callendar, The Greenwich temperature record; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 78 (1952), 265-266.

G. S. Callendar, Can carbon dioxide influence climate?; Weather 4 (1949), 310-314.

G. S. Callendar, Atmospheric radiation; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 74 (1948), 81-82.

G. S. Callendar, Variations of winter temperature during eight centuries; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 70 (1944), 221-224.

G. S. Callendar, Air temperature and the growth of the glaciers; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 68 (1942), 57-60.

G. S. Callendar, Infra-red absorption by carbon dioxide, with special reference to atmospheric radiation; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 67 (1941), 263-275.

G. S. Callendar, Variations of the amount of carbon dioxide in different air currents; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 66 (1940), 395-400.

G. S. Callendar, The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 64 (1938), 223-240.

H. T. Brown & F. Escombe, On the physiological processes of green leaves; Proceedings of the Royal Society B 76 (1905), 29-111.

S. Arrhenius, On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground; Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science 41 (1896), 237-276.

Ice Core Measurements

D. Luthi, et al., High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present; Nature 453 (2008), 379-382.

C. M. Meure, et al., Law Dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice records extended to 2000 years BP; Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006), L14810.

U. Steigenthaler, et al., Stable carbon cycle-relationship during the late Pleistocene; Science 310 (2005), 1313-1317.

C. D. Keeling, et al., Atmospheric CO2 and 13CO2 exchange with the terrestrial biosphere and oceans from 1978 to 2000: Observations and carbon cycle implications. In A History of Atmospheric CO2 and Its Effects on Plants, Animals, and Ecosystems, J. R. Ehleringer, T. E. Cerling & M. D. Dearing, Eds., New York: Springer Verlag (2005), pp. 83-113.

W. F. Ruddiman, The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago; Climatic Change 61 (2003), 261-293.

E. Monnin, et al., Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last Glacial Termination; Science 291 (2001), 112-114.

L. Pepin, et al., Hemispheric roles of climate forcings during glacial-interglacial transitions as deduced from the Vostok record and LLN-2D model experiments; Journal of Geophysical Research 106 (2001); 31,885-31,892.

A. Indermuhle, et al., Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core, Antarctica; Geophysical Research Letters 27 (2000), 735-738.

J. R. Petit, et al., Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica; Nature 399 (1999), 429-436.

R. J. Francey,  et al., A 1000-year high precision record of d13C in atmospheric CO2; Tellus 51B (1999), 170-193.

V. I. Morgan, et al., Site information and initial results from deep ice drilling on Law Dome, Antarctica; Journal of Glaciology 43 (1997), 3-10.

D. M. Etheridge, et al., Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn; Journal of Geophysical Research 101 (1996), 4115-4128.

D. M. Etheridge, G. I. Pearman & F. de Silva, Atmospheric trace-gas variations as revealed by air trapped in an ice core from Law Dome, Antarctica; Annals of Glaciology 10 (1988), 28-33.

Evidence Before Our Eyes

M. J. Amesbury, et al., Widespread biological response to rapid warming on the Antarctic Peninsula; Current Biology 27 (2017), 1-7.

B. Noel, et al., A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps; Nature Communications 8:14730 doi: 10.1038/ncomms14730 (2017).

S. Albert, et al., Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands; Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016), 054011.

B. Hubbard, et al., Massive subsurface ice formed by refreezing of ice-shelf melt ponds; Nature Communications 7:11897 doi: 10.1038/ncomms11897 (2016).

D. Jansen, et al., Brief communication: Newly developing rift in Larsen C Ice Shelf presents significant risk to stability; The Cryosphere 9 (2015), 1223-1227.

P. R. Holland, et al., Oceanic and atmospheric forcing of Larsen C Ice-Shelf thinning; The Cryosphere 9 (2015), 1005-1024.

M. R. Cape, et al., Foehn winds link climate-driven warming to ice shelf evolution in Antarctica; Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015), 11,037-11,057.

I. Joughin, et al., Brief Communication: Further summer speedup of Jakobshavn Isbræ; The Cryosphere 8 (2014), 209-214.

M. Rebesco, et al., Boundary condition of grounding lines prior to collapse, Larsen-B Ice Shelf, Antarctica; Science 345 (2014), 1354-1358.

E. Domack, et al., Stability of the Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene epoch; Nature 436 (2005), 681-685.

E. Rignot, et al., Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf; Geophysical Research Letters 31 (2004), L18401.

M. H. P. Hall & D. B. Fagre, Modeled climate-induced glacier change in Glacier National Park, 1850-2100; BioScience 53 (2003), 131-140.

Measurements of sea-level rise and ocean heat content

T. Dinan, Projected increases in hurricane damage in the United States: The role of climate change and coastal development; Ecological Economics 138 (2017), 186-198.

J. A. Church & N. J. White, Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century; Surveys in Geophysics 32 (2011), 585-602.

S. Levitus, et al., Global ocean heat content 1955-2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems; Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009), L07608, doi:10.1029/2008GL037155.

J. B. Elsner, Evidence in support of the climate change–Atlantic hurricane
hypothesis; Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006), L16705, doi:10.1029/2006GL026869.

P. J. Webster, et al., Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment; Science 309 (2005), 1844-1846.

Drought risk

B. I. Cook, T. R. Ault & J. E. Smerdon, Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains; Science Advances 1 (2015), e1400082.

J. L. Hatfield, et al., Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production; Agronomy Journal 103 (2011), 351-370.

Projections of possible future climate scenarios and impacts

R. M. DeConto & D. Pollard, Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise; Nature 591 (2016), 593-597.

E. Spanger-Siegfried, M. Fitzpatrick & K. Dahl, Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten U.S. East and Gulf Coast Communities over the Next 30 Years, Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014. (Executive summary, Full report)

H. Machguth, et al., The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps; Environmental Research Letters 8 (2013), 025005.

J. Hansen, et al., Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide; Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 371 (2012), 20120294.

B. Marzeion, A. H. Jarosch & M. Hofer, Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers; The Cryosphere 6 (2012), 1295-1322.

J. Church, The changing oceans; Science 328 (2010), 1453.

Potential solutions

J. Rockstrom, et al., A roadmap for rapid decarbonization: Emissions inevitably approach zero with a “carbon law”; Science 355 (2017), 1269-1271.

A. E. MacDonald, et al., Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions; Nature Climate Change 6 (2016), 526-531.

GEA, 2012Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 2012.

M. Z. Jacobson & M. A. Delucchi, Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials; Energy Policy 39 (2011), 1154-1169.

M. Z. Jacobson, Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security; Energy & Environmental Science 2 (2009), 148-173.

Corporate communications on climate change

G. Supran & N. Oreskes, Assessing ExxonMobil’s climate change communications (1977-2014); Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017), 084019.


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