Following are links to research papers by topic.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
Working Group I Report, “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis”
Working Group II Report, “Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability”
Working Group III Report, “Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change”
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4)
IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001 (TAR)
IPCC Second Assessment Report: Climate Change 1995 (SAR)
Evidence of a scientific consensus that global warming is real and caused by humans
J. Cook, et al., Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming; Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016), 048002.
J. L. Powell, Climate scientists virtually unanimous: anthropogenic global warming is true; Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society 35 (2015), 121-124.
J. Cook, et al., Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature; Environmental Research Letters 8 (2013), 024024.
W. R. L. Anderegg, et al., Expert credibility in climate change; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 (2010), 12107-12109.
D. Bray, The scientific consensus of climate change revisited; Environmental Science & Policy 13 (2010), 340-350.
P. T. Doran & M. K. Zimmerman, Examining the scientific consensus on climate change; Eos 90 (2009), 22-23.
The temperature “hockey stick”
S. Rutherford, et al., Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions: Sensitivity to method, predictor network, target season, and target domain; Journal of Climate 18 (2005), 2308-2329.
S. McIntyre & R. McKitrick, Corrections to the Mann et al. (1998) proxy data base and Northern Hemispheric average temperature series; Energy & Environment 14 (2003), 751-771.
M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley & M. K. Hughes, Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millenium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations; Geophysical Research Letters 26 (1999), 759-762.
M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley & M. K. Hughes, Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries; Nature 392 (1998), 779-787.
Post-Keeling Curve measurements of atmospheric CO2, oceanic CO2, and temperature (1961-present)
G. L. Foster, D. L. Royer & D. J. Lunt, Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years; Nature Communications 8 (2017), 14845.
C. P. Morice, et al., Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set; Journal of Geophysical Research 117 (2012), D08101, doi:10.1029/2011JD017187.
C. D. Keeling, et al., Evolution of natural and anthropogenic fluxes of atmospheric CO2 from 1957 to 2003; Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology 63B (2011), 1-22.
J. Hansen, et al., Global surface temperature change; Reviews of Geophysics 48 (2010), RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.
T. M. Smith, et al., Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006); Journal of Climate 21 (2008), 2283-2296.
W. Steffen, P. J. Crutzen & J. R. McNeill, The Anthropocene: Are humans now overwhelming the great forces of nature?; Ambio 36 (2007), 614-621.
M. Ishii, et al., Objective analyses of sea-surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for the 20th Century using ICOADS and the Kobe Collection; International Journal of Climatology 25 (2005), 865-879.
C. L. Sabine, et al., The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2; Science 305 (2004), 367-371.
M. F. Lamb, et al., Consistency and synthesis of Pacific Ocean CO2 survey data; Deep-Sea Research II 49 (2002), 21-58.
N. Gruber & C. D. Keeling, An improved estimate of the isotopic air-sea disequilibrium of CO2: Implications for the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2; Geophysical Research Letters 28 (2001), 555-558.
T. J. Crowley, Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years; Science 289 (2000), 270-277.
T. J. Lueker, A. G. Dickson & C. D. Keeling, Ocean pCO2 calculated from dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and equations for K1 and K2: validation based on laboratory measurements of CO2 in gas and seawater at equilibrium; Marine Chemistry 70 (2000), 105-119.
N. Gruber, et al., Spatiotemporal patterns of carbon-13 in the global surface oceans and the oceanic Suess effect; Global Biogeochemical Cycles 13 (1999), 307-335.
C. D. Keeling, Rewards and penalties of monitoring the Earth; Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 23 (1998), 25-82.
R. Revelle, How I became an oceanographer and other sea stories; Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 15 (1987), 1-23.
J. Hansen & S. Lebedeff, Global trends of measured surface air temperature; Journal of Geophysical Research 92 (1987), 13345-13372.
J. Hansen, et al., Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide; Science 213 (1981), 957-966.
C. D. Keeling, The Suess Effect: 13carbon-14carbon interrelations; Environmental International 2 (1979), 229-300.
C. D. Keeling, et al., Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at the South Pole; Tellus 28 (1976), 552-564.
C. D. Keeling, et al., Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii; Tellus 28 (1976), 538-551.
C. Mehrbach, et al., Measurement of the apparent dissociation constants of carbonic acid in seawater at atmospheric pressure; Limnology and Oceanography 18 (1973), 897-907.
R. Revelle, The role of the oceans; Saturday Review; May 7 (1966), 39-42.
J. C. Pales & C. D. Keeling, The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide in Hawaii; Journal of Geophysical Research 70 (1965), 6053-6076.
B. Bolin & C. D. Keeling, Large-scale atmospheric mixing as deduced from the seasonal and meridional variations of carbon dioxide; Journal of Geophysical Research 68 (1963), 3899-3920.
B. Bolin & E. Eriksson, Changes in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and sea due to fossil fuel combustion. In The Atmosphere and the Sea in Motion, B. Bolin, Ed., New York: Rockefeller Institute Press, 1959, pp. 130-142.
Studies of anthropogenic global warming prior to the Keeling Curve (1880-1961)
G. S. Callendar, Temperature fluctuations and trends over the Earth; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 87 (1961), 1-12.
H. E. Landsberg & J. M. Mitchell, Jr., Temperature fluctuations and trends over the Earth; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 87 (1961), 435-437.
C. D. Keeling, The concentration and isotopic abundances of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; Tellus A 12 (1960), 200-203.
G. S. Callendar, On the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; Tellus 10 (1958), 243-248.
C. D. Keeling, The concentration and isotopic abundances of carbon dioxide in rural areas; Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 13 (1958), 322-334.
R. Revelle & H. E. Suess, Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean and the question of an increase of atmospheric CO2 during the past decades; Tellus 9 (1957), 18-27.
S. Fonselius, et al., Carbon dioxide variations in the atmosphere; Tellus 8 (1956), 176-183.
G. N. Plass, The carbon dioxide theory of climate change; Tellus 8 (1956), 140-154.
G. N. Plass, Infrared radiation in the atmopshere; American Journal of Physics 24 (1956), 303-321.
G. N. Plass, The influence of the 15u carbon-dioxide band on the atmospheric infra-red cooling rate; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 82 (1956), 310-324.
G. N. Plass, The influence of the 9.6 micron ozone band on the atmospheric infra-red cooling rate; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 82 (1956), 30-44.
G. N. Plass, Effect of carbon dioxide variations on climate; American Journal of Physics 24 (1956), 376-387.
G. Slocum, Has the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere changed significantly since the beginning of the twentieth century?; Monthly Weather Review 83 (1955), 225-231.
G. S. Callendar, A close parallel between temperature fluctuations in East Canada and Britain; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 81 (1955), 98-99.
G. S. Callendar, The Greenwich temperature record; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 78 (1952), 265-266.
G. S. Callendar, Can carbon dioxide influence climate?; Weather 4 (1949), 310-314.
G. S. Callendar, Atmospheric radiation; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 74 (1948), 81-82.
G. S. Callendar, Variations of winter temperature during eight centuries; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 70 (1944), 221-224.
G. S. Callendar, Air temperature and the growth of the glaciers; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 68 (1942), 57-60.
G. S. Callendar, Infra-red absorption by carbon dioxide, with special reference to atmospheric radiation; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 67 (1941), 263-275.
G. S. Callendar, Variations of the amount of carbon dioxide in different air currents; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 66 (1940), 395-400.
G. S. Callendar, The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 64 (1938), 223-240.
H. T. Brown & F. Escombe, On the physiological processes of green leaves; Proceedings of the Royal Society B 76 (1905), 29-111.
S. Arrhenius, On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground; Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science 41 (1896), 237-276.
Ice Core Measurements
D. Luthi, et al., High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present; Nature 453 (2008), 379-382.
C. M. Meure, et al., Law Dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice records extended to 2000 years BP; Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006), L14810.
U. Steigenthaler, et al., Stable carbon cycle-relationship during the late Pleistocene; Science 310 (2005), 1313-1317.
C. D. Keeling, et al., Atmospheric CO2 and 13CO2 exchange with the terrestrial biosphere and oceans from 1978 to 2000: Observations and carbon cycle implications. In A History of Atmospheric CO2 and Its Effects on Plants, Animals, and Ecosystems, J. R. Ehleringer, T. E. Cerling & M. D. Dearing, Eds., New York: Springer Verlag (2005), pp. 83-113.
W. F. Ruddiman, The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago; Climatic Change 61 (2003), 261-293.
E. Monnin, et al., Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last Glacial Termination; Science 291 (2001), 112-114.
L. Pepin, et al., Hemispheric roles of climate forcings during glacial-interglacial transitions as deduced from the Vostok record and LLN-2D model experiments; Journal of Geophysical Research 106 (2001); 31,885-31,892.
A. Indermuhle, et al., Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core, Antarctica; Geophysical Research Letters 27 (2000), 735-738.
J. R. Petit, et al., Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica; Nature 399 (1999), 429-436.
R. J. Francey, et al., A 1000-year high precision record of d13C in atmospheric CO2; Tellus 51B (1999), 170-193.
V. I. Morgan, et al., Site information and initial results from deep ice drilling on Law Dome, Antarctica; Journal of Glaciology 43 (1997), 3-10.
D. M. Etheridge, et al., Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn; Journal of Geophysical Research 101 (1996), 4115-4128.
D. M. Etheridge, G. I. Pearman & F. de Silva, Atmospheric trace-gas variations as revealed by air trapped in an ice core from Law Dome, Antarctica; Annals of Glaciology 10 (1988), 28-33.
Evidence Before Our Eyes
M. J. Amesbury, et al., Widespread biological response to rapid warming on the Antarctic Peninsula; Current Biology 27 (2017), 1-7.
B. Noel, et al., A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps; Nature Communications 8:14730 doi: 10.1038/ncomms14730 (2017).
S. Albert, et al., Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands; Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016), 054011.
B. Hubbard, et al., Massive subsurface ice formed by refreezing of ice-shelf melt ponds; Nature Communications 7:11897 doi: 10.1038/ncomms11897 (2016).
D. Jansen, et al., Brief communication: Newly developing rift in Larsen C Ice Shelf presents significant risk to stability; The Cryosphere 9 (2015), 1223-1227.
P. R. Holland, et al., Oceanic and atmospheric forcing of Larsen C Ice-Shelf thinning; The Cryosphere 9 (2015), 1005-1024.
M. R. Cape, et al., Foehn winds link climate-driven warming to ice shelf evolution in Antarctica; Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015), 11,037-11,057.
I. Joughin, et al., Brief Communication: Further summer speedup of Jakobshavn Isbræ; The Cryosphere 8 (2014), 209-214.
M. Rebesco, et al., Boundary condition of grounding lines prior to collapse, Larsen-B Ice Shelf, Antarctica; Science 345 (2014), 1354-1358.
E. Domack, et al., Stability of the Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene epoch; Nature 436 (2005), 681-685.
E. Rignot, et al., Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf; Geophysical Research Letters 31 (2004), L18401.
M. H. P. Hall & D. B. Fagre, Modeled climate-induced glacier change in Glacier National Park, 1850-2100; BioScience 53 (2003), 131-140.
Measurements of sea-level rise and ocean heat content
R. S. Nerem, et al., Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717312115 (2018).
T. Dinan, Projected increases in hurricane damage in the United States: The role of climate change and coastal development; Ecological Economics 138 (2017), 186-198.
S. Wdowinski, et al., Increasing flooding hazard in coastal communities due to rising sea level: Case study of Miami Beach, Florida; Ocean & Coastal Management 126 (2016), 1-8.
W. Sweet, et al., Sea level rise and nuisance flood frequency changes around the United States, NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 073; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, 2014.
Church, J.A., P.U. Clark, A. Cazenave, J.M. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M.A. Merrifield, G.A. Milne, R.S. Nerem, P.D. Nunn, A.J. Payne, W.T. Pfeffer, D. Stammer and A.S. Unnikrishnan, Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
J. A. Church & N. J. White, Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century; Surveys in Geophysics 32 (2011), 585-602.
S. Levitus, et al., Global ocean heat content 1955-2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems; Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009), L07608, doi:10.1029/2008GL037155.
J. B. Elsner, Evidence in support of the climate change–Atlantic hurricane
hypothesis; Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006), L16705, doi:10.1029/2006GL026869.
P. J. Webster, et al., Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment; Science 309 (2005), 1844-1846.
B. I. Cook, T. R. Ault & J. E. Smerdon, Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains; Science Advances 1 (2015), e1400082.
J. L. Hatfield, et al., Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production; Agronomy Journal 103 (2011), 351-370.
Projections of possible future climate scenarios and impacts
R. M. DeConto & D. Pollard, Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise; Nature 591 (2016), 593-597.
E. Spanger-Siegfried, et al., When Rising Seas Hit Home: Hard Choices Ahead for Hundreds of US Coastal Communities, Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists, 2017.
E. Spanger-Siegfried, M. Fitzpatrick & K. Dahl, Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten U.S. East and Gulf Coast Communities over the Next 30 Years, Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014. (Executive summary, Full report)
H. Machguth, et al., The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps; Environmental Research Letters 8 (2013), 025005.
J. Hansen, et al., Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide; Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 371 (2012), 20120294.
B. Marzeion, A. H. Jarosch & M. Hofer, Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers; The Cryosphere 6 (2012), 1295-1322.
J. Church, The changing oceans; Science 328 (2010), 1453.
J. Rockstrom, et al., A roadmap for rapid decarbonization: Emissions inevitably approach zero with a “carbon law”; Science 355 (2017), 1269-1271.
A. E. MacDonald, et al., Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions; Nature Climate Change 6 (2016), 526-531.
GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 2012.
M. Z. Jacobson & M. A. Delucchi, Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials; Energy Policy 39 (2011), 1154-1169.
M. Z. Jacobson, Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security; Energy & Environmental Science 2 (2009), 148-173.
Corporate influence of climate change politics
G. Supran & N. Oreskes, Assessing ExxonMobil’s climate change communications (1977-2014); Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017), 084019.
G. Goldman & C. Carlson, Tricks of the trade: How companies anonymously influence climate policy through their business and trade associations; Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014.